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After a two-week Olympic break, the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season returns to the track with Sunday’s Go Bowling at The Glen. It’s the first of 14 straight weeks of racing, including the final four races of the regular season before the playoffs get underway.
Here’s what we know about how the NASCAR postseason field is shaping up. Nine drivers have guaranteed themselves a spot, provided they start the final four races of the regular season: Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Alex Bowman, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski. It’s a breakdown of the sport’s Big 3 teams: Ford’s trio of Team Penske drivers, Chevrolet’s Hendrick Motorsports quartet and two from Toyota’s Joe Gibbs Racing.
Another four drivers sit in the “should be in” category: Kurt Busch, Christopher Bell, Michael McDowell and Aric Almirola. Each of them has one win and would only be vulnerable if at least three new winners pop up in the final four regular-season races. Right now, the sport has 13 different winners; if we get to 16, one of these drivers could be eliminated as winless point leader Denny Hamlin is guaranteed a spot.
Hamlin is in a weird position, sitting with zero victories after winning seven times in 2020. While he can’t be caught by any other winless driver, Hamlin sits just 13 points ahead of Larson. That leaves the door slightly open for the No. 11 team to fall out if there’s three new winners in the final four races and Larson captures the regular-season championship.
Kevin Harvick and Tyler Reddick round out the current 16-driver field as it stands. Both drivers are winless, Harvick being another surprise in that category considering he captured a career-best nine victories last year. Harvick’s been running better as of late, leading a season-high 66 laps at New Hampshire Motor Speedway before the break, but isn’t known as a road course specialist.
That could be a problem with two of the final four regular-season races on this track type: Sunday at Watkins Glen along with one later this month at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Reddick hopes a decent road course record this year (two top 10s in four starts) will help pad his five-point edge over Richard Childress Racing teammate Austin Dillon for the final spot.
Dillon’s the only driver capable of catching Harvick or Reddick on points. For all others seeking a road to the playoffs, from Chris Buescher to Bubba Wallace, the formula is simple: they have to win. That’ll be a tall order this weekend at a track where Chase Elliott has dominated the past two events here, leading 132 of the last 180 laps. Elliott has already won two road course races in 2021 and will be looking to add an eighth career victory on this track type, leaving him one behind Jeff Gordon for the most all-time.
How these underdog drivers play their pit strategy is key to determining the upset. The Glen comes with a 50-lap final stage where you’ll have to make at least one stop. Opportunities to tweak your car are limited, as this track has had no more than four cautions in any race during the stage era.
Will Elliott continue his road course domination in western New York? Or will a driver desperate for a postseason bid pull off a big surprise?
Who’s at the Front: Aric Almirola
The sport is still buzzing from Almirola’s out-of-nowhere trip to victory lane two weeks ago. Earning just two top-10 finishes in the first 21 races this year, Almirola was suffering through the worst season of his career entering New Hampshire.
Not anymore. Almirola charged from his 22nd starting spot, eventually leading 25 laps in a race that was shortened due to pending darkness. He earned his win the hard way, on raw speed and quieted Silly Season rumors he’d be replaced at the No. 10 Ford of Stewart-Haas Racing next season. It’s just the third career win for Almirola and his first outside of the big pack racing superspeedways of Daytona and Talladega.
Who’s at the Back: William Byron
It’s been all downhill for Byron after winning the pole at Road America for the July 4 race. Since then, runs of 33rd, 20th and 21st equal the worst slump of the season for a driver who racked up 11 straight top-10 finishes earlier this year.
